Flipweight

The method

The weighted decision matrix, explained

Pros-and-cons lists lie by omission. A matrix can't.

A pros-and-cons list treats every reason as equal. A weighted matrix forces the uncomfortable question — how much does each thing matter? — and then does arithmetic you can't argue with afterward.

The five steps

01

Name the options

Every candidate you're genuinely considering — including "do nothing" and "keep looking." Leaving the quiet option out is how decisions get rigged before they start.

02

Name the criteria

What actually matters, in words a stranger would understand. "Vibes" is not a criterion; "how I'll feel on a Tuesday in February" is. Four to eight criteria is the sweet spot.

03

Weight the criteria

Give each criterion a 1–10 importance before you score anything. This is the honest moment: weights say what you value, not what you say you value. Argue about these numbers — they're the whole game.

04

Score every cell

Rate each option against each criterion, 1–10, against evidence rather than adjectives. The weighted total is just multiplication and addition — no magic, which is exactly the point.

05

Stress-test the verdict

The step everyone skips. Find the smallest weight change that would flip the winner — the flip point. If one point of "salary" undoes your dream job, you haven't decided yet. If it takes four points, you have.

Where matrices go wrong

Weights fitted to the answer

Tweaking weights until your favorite wins is astrology with spreadsheets. Weight first, score second — and notice when you're tempted to reorder them.

Criteria that overlap

"Salary" and "total compensation" double-count the same concern, quietly doubling its weight. Merge anything that always moves together.

Scores from imagination

A matrix scored from fantasy is a novel, not a decision. Where you can get a number — rent, salary, commute minutes — get the number.

See it on a real decision